Dutch Elections: Major Parties and Central Topics in Snap Vote
Voters in the Holland are set to potentially replace the most conservative government in modern history with a more centrist and commonsense coalition during early general elections scheduled for 29 October.
The Situation and Why It Matters
Early legislative elections were called after the breakdown of the outgoing government in the summer, when rightwing figure the Freedom party leader withdrew his party from an already unstable and highly ineffectual governing alliance.
The PVV had finished shockingly first in the previous general election, and after prolonged talks formed a fragile four-party rightwing coalition with the BBB party, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.
However, Wilders' coalition partners deemed him too toxic for the prime minister position, which ultimately went to a ex-security head. Wilders, an anti-immigration commentator who has required security detail for two decades, began sniping from outside government.
He ultimately triggered the coalition breakup on June 3 after his partners refused to implement a radical 10-point immigration restriction proposal that included deploying the army to patrol borders, rejecting all asylum seekers, closing most asylum centers and sending home all Syrian refugees.
Although support for the PVV has declined, polls indicate the rightwing, anti-Islam party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. But, major Netherlands political formations have all ruled out entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
At least sixteen political groups are forecast to enter parliament, but none is projected to win more than about one-fifth of the vote. Typically, the next Dutch government, typically an influential player on the EU and world stage, will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could take several months.
Electoral Mechanics and Party Environment
There are 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 mandates to achieve majority status. No individual group ever manages this, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions for over 100 years.
Parliament is elected every four years – sooner when governments collapse – through proportional representation, based on an approved list of contenders in a single, nationwide constituency: any party that secures less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
As in much of Europe, Netherlands political life have been marked in recent decades by a significant drop in backing of the historical ruling parties from the moderate right and left, whose share of the vote has shrunk from over four-fifths in the eighties to just over 40% now.
Domestically, this process has been paralleled by a spectacular proliferation of smaller parties: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a party for the over-50s, a party for youth, a party for animals, a basic income advocacy group, and a sports-focused party.
Key Players and Main Issues
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, projected to drop as many as eight of the thirty-seven mandates it won in 2023. It proposes, among other policies, a total moratorium on refugee admissions, Ukrainian men to be returned, the army to combat "street terrorists", and an end to "progressive education" in schools.
Two political groups, of the moderate right and left, are neck-and-neck behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Dutch politics from the late 1970s to the early 90s, and again in the early 2000s, but dropped to just five seats in the previous poll.
Nevertheless, under Henri Bontenbal, its youthful rising star, who entered politics only four years ago, the party has recovered strongly with a campaign highlighting the dire Dutch housing crisis and a commitment of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is projected for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the green party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is anticipated to become a complete unification, is projected to secure comparable seats, according to survey data.
Led by the seasoned former European commissioner its leader, it has made building more new homes its biggest priority, and has debatedly proposed a net migration cap of between 40,000 and 60,000 people annually in its platform.
Three additional groups appear set to be significant forces in the new parliament.
The liberal-progressive D66 is projected to gain seats – capturing up to 17, from its current nine – under its direct-speaking young leader, with a platform centred on residential construction (it plans to build 10 new cities) and an "personal minimum income" for recipients.
The center-right VVD, the political group of the former prime minister (now NATO leader), is predicted to decline to no more than sixteen mandates from its current 24, with its head, criticized of moving the group excessively rightward, held responsible for its decrease. It is proposing corporate tax reductions and reduced social benefits.
The anti-establishment, hardline conservative JA21 is a breakaway group from a different rightwing formation – the once popular, now scandal-hit Forum for Democracy – and appears to be profiting from an departure of supporters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could win up to 14 seats.
In addition to the two main rightwing parties, both remaining members in the unsuccessful outgoing coalition, the BBB and NSC, are projected to lose out, with the NSC not even guaranteed legislative seats.
The top issues currently have been migration policy, with multiple – sometimes violent – protests against proposed asylum facilities for refugee applicants, the living expenses, and the perennial Dutch problem of accommodation (the nation is short of four hundred thousand residences).
Potential New Government
Considering the highly fragmented state of Dutch politics, what alliances are actually possible is equally significant as who wins the election (or in this case, more likely second, since no major party will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
After the election, MPs first appoint an informateur, who seeks out possible alliances. Once a workable alliance has been identified, a formateur, typically the leader of the largest potential partner, begins negotiating the government program. This often requires months.
Various combinations look possible, most involving a combination of parties from moderate left and center right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus D66 and several minor groups potentially including JA21.
