A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
