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Just 48 hours to go.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|