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With nine goals in his opening seven fixtures, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has started the season on fire.

While it is not his best start to a campaign - he registered 11 strikes in his opening seven appearances in two seasons ago and double digits last year - it nonetheless positions him three strikes clear in the early running for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

The fact that not one of his nine strikes have been spot-kicks makes it all the more impressive.

What Makes Haaland Special

Naturally, fitness issues could potentially disrupt in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two key factors why Haaland is such a clear frontrunner for the award so quickly into the term.

First, the total of conversions he has already scored - and, just as importantly, the number and quality of chances he is getting.

Furthermore, the sluggish beginning his usual rivals for the prize have made.

xG Statistical Breakdown

A footballer's xG statistic (xG) indicates how many goals a English league attacker has historically scored from the number and quality of chances he has had.

This isn't a figure arbitrarily chosen by statistical experts, but by Premier League history.

When examining at attackers' xG statistics in the English top division so far this season from open play, the Scandinavian attacker is getting so many more quality chances to convert than anyone else.

In fact, even if Haaland were no better at converting opportunities than any other player in the division, he would nonetheless have netted more than twice as many goals as all other players.

Chance Creation Breakdown

This is illustrated by analyzing the quantity and caliber of scoring situations that footballers have received in the top flight so far.

Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this campaign, twelve additional compared to every other footballer.

This is actually not particularly unusual for him - he had previously registered more non-penalty shots at this stage in the previous two campaigns (30 in last season and 34 in 2024-25).

What's particularly unprecedented even for him is the standard of scoring situations he has had this season. His attempts have had an chance quality metric of an average of 0.27.

This statistic indicates is that attackers have typically netted the shots he has had at a 27 percent conversion rate.

Of players to take at ten or more efforts, only Stamford Bridge player Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to score on average - due to a couple of tap-ins against West Ham and Brighton.

Haaland's xG of 0.27 is much higher than the 0.17 xG rating per effort he had at the start of last season.

To summarize, the opportunities he has had in 2025-26 have been considerably more favorable to find the net from in a realigned Citizens squad than those at the opening of last term.

Previous Season Assessment

Beginning a campaign so strongly is, as previously stated, not unusual for Haaland. After seven games last campaign he had netted ten times - four additional compared to every other footballer and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.

But it was the Reds attacker who secured the scoring title with 29 conversions, seven more than the City forward.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has registered half as many goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

Actually this has been the quietest start to a English top-flight campaign the Egypt forward has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It isn't only Salah who has begun modestly either. When examining at the eleven leading goalscorers in the Premier League last season, Haaland has scored as many goals as the additional ten attackers put together so far.

Whether because of physical problems - multiple prominent forwards - protracted transfer stories in Alexander Isak's case or merely because their teams have struggled (multiple established scorers), Haaland's probable competitors in the race for the Golden Boot have underperformed so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

Although the Norwegian appears the clear favourite for the English top scorer award, what about the Continental scoring award that is awarded to the footballer scoring the most in Europe's premier competitions?

That race is significantly tighter at this opening period because two elite attackers have also started in superb fashion, with eleven and nine strikes respectively.

The circumstance Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the greatest expected goals of the three players without yet taking any penalties renders him the favourite.

However, because the two continental superstars are among the finest converters in European soccer in terms of overperforming their xG, the race is certainly on.