🔗 Share this article

In the course of the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Hungary's prime minister was notable as the sole head of an EU nation to back Donald Trump. This support was expected, given the Hungarian leader's embrace of controversial ideas such as great replacement ideology and his suppression of journalistic liberties. Commentators have noted that Hungary's premier more or less laid the groundwork for the Make America Great Again campaign, with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as a precursor to Trump.

Electoral Support In advance of Hungarian Elections

Last week, ahead of pivotal polls in Hungary just half a year off, the American leader reciprocated with support. While Orbán seeks a fifth consecutive term governing a nation he labels an illiberal state, his Fidesz party lags in the polls. A visit to the US capital resulted in beyond a few signed Maga baseball caps; it obtained considerably more valuable campaign boosts.

Energy Exemptions and Economic Protections

Despite previously instructing European states on the need to eliminate all resource supplies from Russia, and threatening sanctions against states still to buy Russian oil, Mr Trump consented to allow a unique waiver for Hungary – the biggest user in the EU of Russian petroleum. According to Mr Orbán, the US government also pledged to offer a “financial shield” to Budapest if it runs into any upcoming challenges, especially as EU institutions persists in holding back substantial EU funds to the nation on grounds of failures to uphold the rule of law.

The specifics of this deal remain vague. Yet the US president has shown his inclination to assist political friends when the US provided a a $20 billion loan to Argentina’s far-right president, Argentina's president. While the Hungarian PM did not secure a presidential tour to the Hungarian capital, the discussions nevertheless was a profitable day’s work.

Brussels' Worries and Global Ramifications

Within EU circles, the US president's move probably highlighted the strategic importance of the upcoming vote, ahead of which the moderate contender, Péter Magyar, holds a solid advantage in surveys. European leaders have learned not to look for principled consistency from the US government, and are familiar with the American leader's moves to diminish the EU. Yet the waiver for Hungary – obtained in exchange for an deal to acquire American energy resources – openly contradicts the bloc's aims to eliminate Russian oil and gas by the year 2027.

• Since 2022, the two biggest EU importers of Russian petroleum, Hungary and Slovakia, have funneled well over £10bn to the Moscow's war operations.
• Simultaneously, Hungary has consistently deployed the threat of its veto to hinder advancement in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• While Europe works to forge a unified and effective strategy for aiding the Ukrainian government, and strengthening its hand in any future peace negotiations, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the diplomatic table is still a key barrier.

Opposition Stance

The opposition candidate has avoided vowing a major policy shift on the Ukraine conflict, and focused his campaigning on internal matters, while highlighting the need for the country to start acting as a productive EU partner. After enduring so many years of trolling, Brussels can only hold out hope. Mr Orbán’s indifference to fundamental European principles, including the protection of minority groups and the autonomy of civic groups, has remained a source of shame for the European Union. His persistent opposition toward Ukrainian matters risks undermining its security prospects.